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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  November 20, 2013 4:00am-6:01am EST

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headline low. you're now watching "worldwide exchange." i'm ross westgate. chairman ben bernanke says the fed is committed to as long as it's needed. the minutes are released from the bank of england in a few minutes. will there be any difference of opinion over the forecast sfp. japanese car shipments
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beefed up in october. their they saw their biggest gain in three year. > . >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. >> plenty to get through on today's program. we'll continue to travel through eastern europe. karen is today in budapest where she speaks to the government about return to growth. we'll find out why a village is hungary's solution to its subprime crisis. shipping, selling potatoes, potatoes, it's all in the
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speculation for samsung. we'll discuss that at 10:40 cet. and what does matt davis, voters in india, the carrot and a so-called tech lash all have in common? it's the world in 2014, of course. we'll speak to the editor of the economist about what he thinks is in store at 10:45. finally, jcpenney is the latest retail giant to report numbers today. we'll find out if holiday discounts will show up in the short-term and end up in tears in the long run. join us for that at 11:45 cet. if you have any thoughts, questions, comments, anything about the show, e-mail us worldwide@cnbc.com. fed chairman ben bernanke says the central bank is committed to its easing monetary policy for as long as necessary. that could mean holding rates
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near zero until well after u.s. unemployment falls below the threshold of 6.5%. bernanke says the wall street economy has made significant process. it's still far from where officials want it to be. >> i agree with the sentiment expressed by my colleague, janet yellen expressed last week that the surest path to monetary policy is to do all we can to promote a morrow bust policy. the fomc remains committed to maintain a highly accommodative policy for as long as needed. >> the fed decided in september and october to maintain asset purchases of $85 million a month. bernanke says they want evidence of durable growth before scaling back that program. as for what life after the fed
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may hold, he may follow alan greenspan's path by writing books and following the speaking circuit. when it comes do combining growth and deleveraging, this is a fresh report. the group concludes real risks remain, including jobs growth, which suggests the fed could take a gradual approach to unwinding qe. joining us now, didier george. good morning. >> good morning. >> nice to see you. congratulations on the qualification. >> maybe finally the team will become modest in working -- >> well, we can but hope. we might play each other. you never know. turning our attention to the u.s., the next crunch, big match, the implication of what the fed is saying here, the problem they've had with investors is as soon as this goes back, as soon as they
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taper, markets start going into tightening mode. the fed would like to scale back. the comments yesterday, is that going to in any way help in that? is it an achievable task? >> what bernanke said yesterday reminds me of what he was saying until march this year already. and then he sort of changes language, tested the market and got a pretty clear reaction to the market. so it's back to some kind of forward guidance trying to convince markets that whenever if tapering occurs, it will be monetary policy. we're hoping that the markets will focus on this. >> will they or won't they? >> i think to some extent, the markets have learned their lessons over the summer. the positioning has changed and everyone understands that even
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janet yellen is saying that t the -- countercollapse or whatever. so i would hope when it happens that the markets don't tread quite as bad hi. it will happen. it would be that the economy is still weak in the u.s. that indeed markets can relax, that the qe will continue forever. that just won't happen. as a central banker, you're looking at the way the monetary bank has exploded and you can't ignore that. so you try to focus investors and attention on the fact that interest rates are going to remain low forever so they're reassured so that tapering can start. it will work hopefully better than this summer. >> there's a green light for investors. liquidity is there.
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keep buying, keep pushing it up. is there an unknown risk about actually easing does more damage than good? i'm trying to work out where the problem might come from. >> well, i don't think it matters more going forward into next year is the word economy. we've been through a period where any kind of bad news was good news for the market. now that the markets are start to go relation that qe won't be forever, then good economic news is likely to become good market news. so i would consider if you're bullish, you have to be reasonably bullish on the economy and reasonably compared to earnings, which by the way, we are. so to some extent, you can be
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reasonably optimistic on markets. >> you don't share bernanke's view? >> in the u.s., the margins are high, the business investments are fine. i think maybe some people have missed the boat and would hope to see about a correction. i don't think that is the clear risk now. but it is true that markets cannot rely any more on the fed turning any -- into a good market news. so these economic numbers have to come out next year, in the next quarter to support the market. and what is true of the u.s. is even more towards europe where all the equity rally has been laid on the hopes that 2014, which shows strong earnings growth, and if they don't deliver, then you have 25% tries in markets which aren't justified. >> we will get into the european investment landscape fairly
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shortly today. stick around. more to come from you. right now, let's bring you up to speed with where global equities are trading right now. take a look at the dow jones stocks 600 heat map. decliners outpacing advancers by around about 6 to 33. the ftse yesterday was down from 25 points. today, it's down another 10 points. the xetra dakts and cac 40 are fairly flat. moving on, take a look at some of the individual stocks focused on. metro considering a stock market listing of a minority stake in its russian unit. europe's fourth biggest retailer stressed no formal decision had been made. but a london float of the unit could be worth more than $1 billion. investors originally -- investors like the new setup, 3.2%.
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nokia is not pursuing an acquisition for parts of alcatel lucent. it had been weighing up a purchase according to dow jones. nokia decided not to pursue formal talks at this time. and cf-1, we talked about the in the headlines, 5.5%. the french broadcaster up because france has qualified for the brazil world cup. and they managed to have a two-goal deficit. we'll be speak to go stephane in paris later to get all the a sporting as well as the market reaction. bond markets, treasury yields, just rise a little bit yesterday during the session. we're back up 2.711% yield on the ten-year. we have 2.69% this time yesterday. we'll keep our eyes on gilt yields, as well. minutes from the bank of england's policy meeting coming out in 20 minutes. hopefully we'll get a clue. currency markets, the dollar has
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been weaker overnight. euro/dollar, still with the 1.35 handle. we were just above 1.35 this time yesterday. aussie slightly weaker, more comments out from members of the rba. they're still thinking about weakness policy further if need be and the pound is just over 1.61 against the dollar. the pbac chief says is country's trading ban will be gradually expanded to the point where the central bank basically exits from its regular interventions. his comments were in a public guide book to the third plenum reform sold in book sold for $5 apiece. very good value. so what has happened to markets in asia today? li sixuan is with us for the first time today out of singapore. >> thank you for that, ross.
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asian shares under some selling pressure today. the nikkei 225 lost 0.3% against the dollar under the 100 level. china shares, on the other hand, managed to rebound from yesterday's pullback. the shanghai composite ended above the key 2200 level. and the hang seng ended higher by a modest 0.2%. china enterprises lending support thanks to the reform euphoria. shares gaining 0.6% and the subindex has gained 7.% so far this week and has recouped a lot losses this year. but australian shares ended lower for the third straight session to some five-week lows. and on to the movers and shakers, australia slowly parced
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to 25% in today's trade. worley parsons slashed its forecast by 19% and plans to cut jobs globally. taking off on the other hand were chinese airliners on expectations of further yuan appreciation as ross just talked about, after the pboc chief said the central bank will basically end normal intervention in the u.s. market. that's a look at the asian markets. back to you, ross. >> sixuan, catch you later. still to come on the show, hungary's economy is growing faster than expected, according to the latest figures. but are unpredictable government policy still putting off investors? karen will join us from budapest right after this. ♪
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the foundation that holds a controlling interest in monte paschi says carrying out a plan in january would be be a welcomed move due to needing more time due to the complexity of things. the hikes could either take place at the beginning of next
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year in june or at the end of 2014. the move is part of conditions requested by the european commission in order to approve the state bailout. shares in the italian bank just up marginally. meanwhile, european banks are back in favor with u.s. investors, according to the financial times. u.s. fund managers such as blackrock and t. rowe price significantly increased investments in some of the biggest lenders in the second quarter. it suggests fund increase holdings by 10% with total earnings per share rising by 33 million euros. this comes off a slight improvement in economic growth. didier is still with us. do you think those moves are justified or premature? >> or late. >> late? >> yes, in the sent that the european banks have been the best way to play the draghi put
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for the next six months. ever since draghi made sure the banks get into some kind of liquidity crush, these were the best stocks to play. and some interest to see u.s. investors, about one year later, discovered that because the economic numbers are improving slightly, then banks are the best. >> it's a chans change, isn't it? the large growth number was still only 0.1%. >> the group argument is that in favor of the banks, what is number one is the risk factor which is clearly being taken care of by the central bankers. and number two, valuations. even if those banks have done very well in terms of market appreciation this year, italy and spain remains very cheap. so yes, why not for the value argument, that the main comment is that they are not lending.
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in italy, in spain, bank lending is still going down. that is the main concern. as an equity investor, that remains a reasonably attractive bet. but the key issue is putting more and more pressure on their balance sheet which makes them less and less likely broken to risk the event. >> we'll turn attentions back to emerging europe. gdp up 1.7% in the third quarter from a year ago in hungary. the economics minister said growth could pick up even further in the fourth quarter. a perfect time to take a health check of the nation as cnbc continues its road trip of emerging economies. karen has moved from bu ka rest all the way over to due ba pest. what a beautiful spot you've found yourself, karen. >> exactly, ross. this is one of those cities where you drive around and you just go, wow, there's so many
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beautiful structures here and they're on such a grander scale. it is a legacy of communism. the problem is, it seems to be a city more for the tourist than the investors. a pushback by the right wing party, so basically against many of the banks that issued loans to households and consumers. there has been a push into the judicial system, the religious system, and on the press. on top of that, the finance minister was installed as the central bank governor. they had a double dip recession last year and have tried to work really hard. there is some hope as we've got the positive growth numbers that the economy is turning a quarter.
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have a listen to what the economy minister had to tell me. >> the most important to growth is based on foundation and that is the most important, i think. >> there is a deficit for investors after what only can be described as unpredictable government policies. you've had high taxes on companies, loan losses on banks and nationalization of utility companies. is hungary close to foreign investors? >> there have been many changes in hungary in the last couple of years, also in the tax system, in the labor market, or in the regional structure. so we carried out a high number of reforms. so i can understand if you look at this huge range of platforms, you can say that it's unpredictable. but when we look at the next budget, for example, i should say having the next budget, it
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is a predictably boring budget. so i think step by step, the hungary monetary policy will be much more predictable. >> a boring budget is a very different description to an election budget. some say the spending today has been towards getting re-elected in 2014. what would you say to that? >> i would say we don't need election budget. what we need is to keep the budget deficit clearly below % and we have to have a grip on the budget and that we have. so that is a heavy foundation. when we have a happy foundation, you can expect step by step a higher growth. >> the conversation that the economy minister -- about having a large government. it's interesting, as you talk about state control, to have a stand up economy that is
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flourishing. think about an industry that is one of the most capitalistic ones. a range of investors, range of capitalists. i'm talking about the tech sector. and i have a company here which has about 5 million users in the past six months. joining me now is the co-founder of cozi. tell us about this company. you have 13 million users, half of which have added in the past six months alone. this is not exactly the back drop you would expect to find a start-up company. >> in asia, this is more common because they can access the global market from budapest. so there is the start-up costs is really good here. and i think we have a great product. >> you've got offices in san francisco, south korea. when you want to access capital, do you access it through those
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markets rather than here in hungary? >> we've been cash flow positive since we started the company. and we look for investors who have clear -- look for smart money. so we ended up with tax adventures, some from silicone valley, and an american company. >> the word boring has been used regarding the economy a lot lately. your company is about using i guess more digital, more audio, functions and presentations. >> yes. an impressive number of slides, it's just one to invest, you put in youred why eideas, your vider images. and the whom thing becomes much
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more -- >> do you charge people for the service? >> yes. we charge for privacy. adam, thank you so much for joining us today. so as you can see, some stories here from a state-controlled government with companies that can make a go of it here in hungary, ross. back to you in the studio. >> thanks, karen. we'll catch you a little more later. meanwhile, still to come here, falling unemployment, a pick up in private lending and an upgraded oecd forecast. it doesn't seem to get much better from the uk. has there been any shift in tone from the bank of england? we'll have the minutes from the last meeting coming up.
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fed chairman ben bernanke says the central bank is committed to its ultra low monetary policy for as long as needed even after the unemployment falls below the fed's threshold. investors about to give some insight to the bank of england. will they have any differences of opinion over the bank's forecast? japanese car shipments speed up in october on u.s. demand as
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overall exports roar ahead by 19%, their biggest gain in two years. france has qualified for the 2014 fifa world cup in brazil. shares in tf1 a little higher. european equities, there we go. very well. it's made didier a happy man. he's with me today. meanwhile, ftse 100 down 0.25%. the xetra dax down 0.11%. cac 40 down 0.2% and the ftse mib down 0.4%. bernanke said rates would stay low, they may target an unemployment threshold of 6.5%. bond markets, meanwhile, we are going to turn our attention right now to what happens with gilt.
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we're about to get the latest minutes from the bank of england monetary policy committee meeting two weeks ago. we'll find out whether there was much discussion on whether the forward guidance was wrong or right. currency markets, the dollar has been weaker, not by much. euro/dollar is 1.3536, sort of where we were yesterday. and sterling will get the attention right now. toss minutes should be coming out any moment now and indeed they are. and the boe, november minutes, unchanged and qe, as well. they expect growth to pick up in the near term. staff the gdp growth of plus 0.9% quarter on quarter. pick up driven by household spending and housing. risks to growth tilted to the downside. the experiment environment unlikely to aid growth. it sees the euro area balance
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sheet repair as a growth risk. the pace of growth is likely to ease in the next two to three years. inflation will fall in the near term, rise towards year-end and inflation expectations are well anchored. unemployment, this is key, likely to fall further in the next three months. bank rates may not fall immediately. credit has improved. firms' employment receptions have increased and capacity utilization is near normal levels in manufacturing and services. sterling weaker after that 1.5123. let's get some reaction from melanie baker, uk economist at morgan stanley. a lot of those comments reiterating what we saw in the quarterly inflation report.
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ass yet, nothing to south they'e looking at forward guidance. >> no. they're away from the threshold being reached. asset. the minutes have been on the ground in the past couple of months, as well, in terms of redeveloping the debate. what i'll be looking for will be a sense of whether on the raising interest rate, just this general sense about a rise in interest rates is an inprospect any time soon. >> they have come out with this comment, reiterated time and again at the quarterly inflation report, that bank rate may not rise immediately when the jobless target is met. >> yes. yes. when it's met, they could reset the guidance. i think, you know, carney's
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comments were interesting in the press conference where he said they won a 7% threshold is met, it's the tradeoff between growth and inflation. it's attractive at that point that they could keep rates low. >> what is interesting, we look at these minutes and i don't know when you go to the bank and look more in detail, is anybody, during these meetings, saying, you know, i'm not sure i agree with forward guidance or are they very conscious of the fact that if they question it, it's even less ifeffective? >> if they are, we can't see it in the minutes. i think there's going to be some concern at this communication impact in the way those minutes were presented. >> i'm just wondering if to some
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extent this question about forward guidance is not one of the interests in the coming months, clearly the fed and janet yellen are going to have to be extremely careful about how forward guidance helps the market sort of take in stride the announcement when tapering comes. and i was wondering whether you get the sense that the forward guidance by carney in a way helps markets sort of adapt to the policy, whether that's a lesson to be taken by mrs. yellen. >> i mean, i think it is -- i think the bankers and mpc has made a fair point. if we weren't in an environment with a specific forward guidance, they've come communication in the way, that people would be thinking rates could rise, you know, many stiller than they are at
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present, given the sheer strength of some of the incoming data. >> employment, melanie, there's a whole range of forecasts that come from the end of next year right through to 2017 on the uk base rates may actually go higher. what's the morgan stanley view? >> our view is it will be mid 2015. and it will probably be one of the inflation knockouts that goes for the threshold being met. >> that is good comfort being in the middle of pack, though. i like that. now, after beating apple to the smart watch segment, shares of samsung's gag axy are in question. chery has more for us from seoul. >> samsung electronics came up with that figure, 800,000 units in two months. but i would like you and our viewers to put that in relative
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terms. take the galaxy note, which is the only smartphone model at this point that's compatible with galaxy gear and that's selling by 10 million units per month. that is according to asset securities. there's a discrepancy in these figures and consumers reception. .i also love this piece by "the wall street journal." samsung says it shipped, not sold, 800,000 s-smart watches. so when asked by the journal, samsung acknowledged that this figure is not actually the number of galaxy gears sold to consumers, but rather shipped out to retailers or carriers. so, ross, i guess they could be a sign of samsung's internal desperation to sell the idea of global devices and its galaxy gear at the frontier of that realm. after all, if you think about it, we're talking about a firm that doesn't even release
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figures for its mobile devices and its earnings report, right? >> yeah, i know. unless you get the design right, i don't see people wearing these things. but we'll see what happens. chery, thank you very much. a stylish freshman, you're going to wear a phone on your wrist unless it looks good? i can't see you're wearing a very nice time piece. i can't imagine you're going to take that. it doesn't look as good. >> it's part of the issue. i think they have to work on the product itself. >> we are in agreement on that fact. >> sharp, continuing to provide -- on an oem basis. >> hi, ross.
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shares are up sharp on this news, closing the day up nearly 8%. one of the few segments is considering spinning off the business to set up a joint venture of south korea's samsung. the talks are reportedly being called off to raise concerns about japan's key technology would fall into the hands of a south korean rival. sharp hopes to close a deal with hb by the end of the year and start production by spring. in other news, suzuki motors is set to roll out 13 new models by tend of next year. they want to tap the south asian market to diversify its portfolio which is now heavily centered in india. suzuki will focus on three compact car models. all of these are designed on the same platform, helping save in production costs and securing profits in the low price emerging markets. that's all from me. back to you, ross. >> all right, thanks for that. and suzuki made big targets
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for emerging markets, but not every japanese automaker is going down that road. the ceo of subaru's parent company told cnbc their game plan involves less on quantity, despite their u.s. ambitions. meanwhile, china remain aes key focus both as a sales market and a manufacturing base kaori has been speaking to all those strategies and ask when all those new plants might begin exporting to the u.s. >> we just started the prediction of our extended 6dl as we speak. the first year that production will be sold and focused to the japanese market because the demand is high enough. and yes, we are looking at exporting it to certain parts of the world. but it's a little bit too premature to talk about it now. >> ballpark, three years, five
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years? potentially, within two to four years. >> meanwhile, exporters had their biggest gains in three years thanks to accelerating car shipments. analysts had been expecting a surge. there's no easing up on japan's bloated trade deficit. and the country is looking for big returns for its aging pensioners. an advisory panel is recommending an overhaul to the world's biggest retirement fund. the goal is to shift slightly out of passive funds and into high yielding products like equities. they suggest infrastructure, private equity and wheat. analysts say japan's stock market has the benefit from the reforms. shares have come up around 45% so far this year. but are they still ready to rumble? head to our website to find out why some analysts forecasting the rally may continue throughout next year. follow us on twitter,
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@cnbcworld. your view of japanese equities? >> i guess we could relate to to what we were saying earlier about the u.s. and europe. in the case of europe, it's a rating. european equity markets are about 20% more expensive than they were at the beginning of the year. in japan, they have gone up, what, 45%? but they're cheaper than they were at the beginning of the years. because earnings growth is in the region of 50% to 60%. so, one, i think the market is today a lot more attractive than it was a year ago. number two, some of the reforms are really going to have an effect on the economy in the coming two to three years, which is not -- >> i get the sense that investors want to see whether there's any real further impact as to whether they can launch that properly. >> sure. >> is there a pent up sort of a
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rating to see whether that happens? >> well, the markets are impatient, which is in their nature. part of it is attitude. let's see for the second month. that's fair enough. our conviction is that the whole abe-nomics is also -- therefore mr. abe is absolutely forced to store that. it's about getting the fiscal policy right, getting enough support to japanese copper so that, you know, part of the tax cuts can be then passed on via salary increases so that they can make up for a rise in the vat and we are talking very big adjustments here. the markets don't get any satisfaction in the coming two
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weeks. but the direction is very strong. and so reforms, it's a key thing behind this symbolic phrase and it's the motion that it is the third arrow that will give us strength to the first two and, therefore, i think lending would be very unwise to believe it would be shy to -- and do the reforms. >> good to have you on today. >> thank you. >> thank you very much for joining us. is parliament grilling investment bankers about the valuation that they placed on the royal mail's ipo which traded considerably above its listing prices last month. representatives from the three banks left out of the ipo, jpmorgan, citi and ipo attending the hearing. we'll keep our eyes out for comments from that. still to come, next year 40%
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of the world's population are heading to the polls. essentially changing global political landscape. we'll take a look at what's in store for the economists annual predictions. 0 that's a good thing, but it doesn't cover everything. only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. so consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, they could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. call today to request a free decision guide. with these types of plans, you'll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients... plus, there are no networks, and virtually no referrals needed. join the millions who have already enrolled
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gary locke plans to step down as the u.s. ambassador to spend more time with his family. loke's tenure has provided with increased tension between the two countries. burger king will soon be taking on the maharaja mac in india. they're setting up shop. the first goal is to set up a supply chain. the four restaurants are then rolled out. but the question is, will burger king, like mcdonald's, serve chicken to serve beef and pork in india? be allowed to serve beef and
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pork in india i think is what we're talking about. right. mean wile, let's give you a look at what's on the agenda tomorrow. the bank of japan delivers its economy decisions. we'll get another gauge on factory activity in china. namely the flash pmi reading for november. eu leaders will be in beijing for the summit. key topics include trade, security issues and syria. and all the european places have been -- in next year's world cup are in brazil helped portugal edge past sweden. but the match of the night came in paris where france managed to overturn a two-goal deficit which sent di did i er's men to america. what does that mean for those who broadcast the rights to the
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french footballing world cup? stephane is with us. congratulations, stephane. i know you must have been cocahoop. >> i've got a bit of ukrainian blood from my mother, so that would have given me an escape in case the french team would have lost. but the lafbs, that was widely unexpected. it's obviously very good news for sponsors, like citron and credit agricole. they would have missed significant exposure if the french team wasn't qualified. i guess there were some conditions in the contracts for them to pay less if they were not qualified. however, for the forecasts for tf1 which paid $130 million euros for the rights to the world cup, there were no conditions with or without the french team. it would have been the same price. earlier this week, the ceo said it wouldn't make any difference with or without the french football team.
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obviously, they were able to serve the breaks at the same time without the national team. so that is quite a relief. actually, the market reaction this morning shows that there were some pressure on markets at least to some worries for tf1, up 5.3% right now. we know from the cfo of tf1 that such a deal is extremely expensive. 130 million euros for tf1. it's nearly 50% of the annual cost of its program. so it's a huge amount of money just for one single event. because it's very difficult to recover this investment, the channel has planned to sell, to resell some of the games to other stations. it's going to sell 36 games which are not a flagship one. it's all over the press, of course, the media in france today. >> all right, it is. good stuff, stephane. who knows, we might play france
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in the quarterfinals. if they do, you and i will somehow -- lecrunch is what we calm that. now, the 2014 publication is out. one of the questions is what percent of the population will cast a ballot next year? understand will be the standout and the biggest as 800 million people are expected to vote. the controversial modi could be a front-runner for the top spot as he's shown to be the most popular politician. the vote will likely take place in may. joining us is daniel franklin, executive editor at the economist. it's a bitter report, this. >> lots of predictions in this. you're going to have to read every word. it's fun to read through.
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there's more on scottish independence in there. that's one election. the bigger issue is the two huge election necessary india and brazil. how might that change the world? >> a lot of big emerging economies going to the polls. indonesia is another one. in india, i think modi is a hugely continhuge ly controversial figure, but business wants him because he has a reputation of getting things done. the system is clogged up. it nooets neeeeds unclogging. but the elections for the european parliament, usually the most boring thing in the world, they're going to produce some shocks with parties doing very well. obviously, the national france in france and the alternative for germany.
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so i think in may that will cause ripples in europe. >> that's the run up, if you like, to britain's attempt to renegotiate its terms of entry and they'll certainly be a lot of soul searching in europe after those electrics. >> what about brazil? they're going through a difficult patch after the last set of elections. they're almost in the interest of slightly squandering -- >> i think that's the real danger. we were very bullish on brazil and our latest special report on brazil was more sober about it. as you were just saying, big year in brazil in other ways, too. the president will be open to that. they do well on the field and that tournament goes smoothly, that might give her boost.
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she's going to face a tough challenge. the real question in brazil is whether they can unclog -- >> and they've had all these disruptions for the pretournament tournament. and people are definitely determined, some groups are determined to use the fact that the tension will be on brazil to demonstrate again. but i think it will go smoothly. it is after all the useful gains. >> and matt damon, what is he doing in your -- >> he is very interested in the problem of water worldwide. and he writes about getting safe water to millions of people around the world. and he thinks that the world needs to focus on that much more. interestingly, he talks about how smart philanthropy, bringing in business rather than being in conflict with business can help solve that problem. >> yeah. i think everybody is looking at that sort of thing, as well. one of the other things you do every year is predict what is going to be some of the fastest
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growing economies. china is slipping. >> china, for the first time, falls out of the top 12 fast growers in 2014. you have to go to places like south sudan whose economy might grow by 35% or more next year, a desperately poor country. a little bit of a boost there from oil. that is real frontier. >> real frontier. and look at countries recovering from war like iran. and anything else that's your favorite sort of prediction or look ahead? >> well, i rather like the fought that we might see a sort of jurassic part resuscitation of a species for the first time. the iberian ibex called syria was killed a few years ago when a tree fell on her. she was the last of her species
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that scientists preserved some of her dna and next year might be the year when we see her brought back to life. >> thanks for that. maybe there are just more woman pursuers. >> probably a good year for women. birch, the fashion peruer is very, very big on pro-moosing women around the world. >> you know what i really like about this is that you can just go in and you can flip through it whenever you like. it's good. i like it. thanks very much for coming in. that's all in the world in 2014 economist addition. for those of you who remember the feel good christmas films, my favorite is "it's a wonderful life." it first aired in 1946. you'll be happy to know that they're making a sequel.
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the film will be called "it's a wonderful life, a continuation of the story." george bailey set out to kill himself on christmas eve but change his mind thanks to an intervention of a guardian angel. we want to know what sequel do you think should never have been made? if you want to join the conversation with us, get in touch with us, tweet @cnbcwex or direct to me @rosswestgate. i don't know if they should make a sequel to that. we'll see. still to come, as investors await the latest fed minutes, our next guest says there's an elephant in the room. francesco joins us after this. hi honey, did you get the toaster cozy?
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you're watching "worldwide exchange." i'm ross westgate. the headlines today, it's all about the reaction to fed chairman ben bernanke. the central bank can miss it? easing monetary policy as long as it's needed even after unemployment falls below the fed tloesh hold. this as investors wait for the latest fomc minutes. from the bank of england, it is under no rush to raise rates in the uk despite a continued
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drop in its unemployment. japanese car shipments speed up in october on the back of u.s. demand, helping overall exports roar by 19%. the biggest gain in thee years. and france qualifies for the 2014 fifa world cup in brazil. that's sending shares in tf1 higher. the tv channel has the right for the tournament. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. >> mr. bernanke went out of his way to say rates are going to stay there way for quite some time. equities haven't done an awful lot in the wake of that. the dow yesterday was down nearly about 9 points. the s&p off 3 and a bit. right now, we are above fair
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value in the dow futures. not by much, around 15 points. but about a point above fair value for the nasdaq. and the s&p 500 is half a point above fair value. on the dow jones stoxx 300, pretty flat, as you can see. fairly flat in europe. the ftse yesterday was down 25 points. it's down another 12 this morning. the xetra dax is not far away from the all-time highs. the ftse mib down around 0.2%. on the bond markets, gilt has a little bit of support post those bank of england minutes. 2.76%. we saw a slight drop off in gilt futures from where the lows were. treasury yields, 2.71%. this time yesterday, though, yielding around 2.69%. on the currency markets again, fairly steady, really. euro/dollar, still above this 1.35 mark. dollar/yen above 100. aussie is at 94.
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more comments out from various members of the central bank. we asked to loosen policy further. and sterling, 11 .6136 did come off against the dollar after the minutes from the bank of england. so that's where we stand here in europe. two hours into the trading session. to recap asia and what happens there, sixuan is with us out of singapore. hi, sixuan. >> thank you, ross. bernanke's dovish comments, not able to give asian shares a lift. the nikkei 225 lost 0.3% after as the dollar/yen fell under the 100 handle. investors avoided big -- ahead of the announcement government pension investment fund panel on risk asset allocation. we saw profit taking in financials. also real estate plays. the defense in national security sector still outperforming.
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and over in hong kong, the hang seng index gained a modest 0.2% with hong kong china enterprises still lending support. h-shares gained 0.6% and has already turned positive for the year. meanwhile, australian shares ended lower for the third straight session at some five-week lows. and on to the movers and shakers. australia's worley parsons dropped 26% following a down beat outlook. worley parsons slashed its 2014 profits expectations by 20%. sharp up in japan after brokerage outrage. shares gained over 7% today. back to you, ross. sixuan, thank you for that. have a good evening in singapore. october cpi out at 8:30 eastern.
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price res forecas are expected unchanged in inflation. at 8:30, we get october retail sales. at 10:00 a.m., october existing home sales are out, forecast to drop to an annual rate of 5.18 million. we'll get september business inventories at 10:00 a.m. and the minutes from last month's fed meeting are released at 2:00 p.m. fed chairman ben bernanke says the central bank is committed to holding rates low for as long as necessary. speaking to the national economists cup in washington, bernanke says while the economy has made significant progress, it's still far from where officials want it to be.
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>> i agree with the sentiment delivered by janet yellen expressed last week is the surest path to a stronger economy is to do all we can today to ease policy. >> to maintain its asset pure chases at $85 million a month. bernanke says they want evidence of durable jobs growth before scaling back that program. he says market expectations for future rate hikes are now more aligned with forward guidance. bernanke gave few hints about what life after the fed may hold. he said he may follow in alan greenspan's footsteps by writing books and hitting the public talking circuit. joining us today, francesco. good to see you. >> thank you. >> thank you for joining us.
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>> the fed had a problem earlier in the year. they wanted to reduce their asset buying program. the next time they start tapering, will it be any different? will the fed be able to convince people that tapering is not tightening? >> they might, but we are very cautious and we think there are risks there and we think that tapering could be the catalyst to our correction in the markets. the market is overvalued. because -- >> overvalued on what? >> you can look at particularly, you know, people they look first and foremost at the p/e ratios of being at 16 on the equity markets. that is within the historical ranges. but what they should be taking into account is the earnings, but these ratios are based upon their 70-year highs and they are quite unsustainable given the
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economic back drop. far above the typical averages and it's been proceeding with market crashes. if you look at the price on sales, which is less -- than pe, but is also 1.57, the historical averages are 1.4, 1.45. expansion is explaining 8el 0 on% of the market in the last two years. multiple expansion has been the major driver. >> it doesn't mean, of course, that we're not going to keep agd to values. right? >> you can. you can. what we say is that the market is overvalued and the correction might come. not only is the market overvalued in absolute tense, but they are quite amazing. that means it's higher and shallower and more, you know,
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narrow in time. so it looks like a curve which is disconnected through an economy where gdp growth is coming below fed expectations for three years in a row. >> do us they tactically stay long? so you think this rally is going to continue. so you would worry about a gap. what do you do? you buy protection. >> you can be out short in a printing environment. that is crazy and very dangerous and no investors will give ow those calculations month into month. so what we do is we are tactically long. we are long europe and japan. and then our edges are working, typically we look for spending a little more amount of money in exchange for a big payout in case there is a correction.
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>> francesco, good to have you on. all the residents of this hungarian area have one thing in xhop, midiamond, missed payment.
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now, there are many who believe the best christmas film ever aired was "it's a wonderful life." now apparently there's a sequel in the making. i'm not sure whether i like this or not. the film will be called "it's a wonderful life, the rest of the story." it is a continuation of the tale of bank manager george bailey who set out to kill himself on christmas eve and change his mind thanks to the intervention of a guardian angel. clarence i think is his name. a great tale. the question is, though, do you think they should be making a sequel? and what sequel do you think should never have been made? join the conversation here on "worldwide exchange." get in touch with us.
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for example, should they have gone all the way to rocky 95? there are too many supermen? i don't know. police academy 15. did we need it? those are the sort of things we want to know. and moving away from the film world, we are traveling through emerging europe this week. karen is there, in a stunning spot, as well. i suppose if the central bank reduced their interest rates, would it help any of those who were caught with foreign currency mortgages? >> yeah, good point, ross. it doesn't really, does it? because if you've got a foreign currency loan, knowing the interest rate does so little here. what it does do is help some of those cash starved and the
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government is not trying to encourage a spatial ending and ensuring there is a growth story here. there are some japanese yen. also, not a surprise that the central bankers try to lower borrowing costs. the government policies have been doing much to encourage banks to issue cheap loans to -- it's a bit like quantitative easing but hungarian style. first, they tried to force many of the foreign banks to take on some of those lowses that accumulated during the financial
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crisis, particularly trying to clear some of the toxic waste. i spoke to the economy minister and this is what he had to say to me. >> georges, what one is that we had from previous time. it is really a burden on population. but in the last couple of years, we looked at many measures. nearly half of them have -- to some extent and to have the people. more than 350,000 people have some benefits from this. so i think we are step by step on that in the way to reduce this burden. we look at the in-depthness according to gdp. it is below 300, 3510, and lower in the last couple of years. >> the very first thing from banks to observe loan losses just accelerate the credit
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squeeze and deleveraging. >> yeah. but the bank introduced it. it's called lending for growth schemes, which is related to stocks falling and it can help in the small and medium size projects in particular to invest and when you look at this stage in this whole case, when we look at the figures, i think it is really encouraging. so this program can get some small and medium sized subsidized loan. that can help the small and medium size enterprises in the economy. >> the economy minister there speaking to me. i spoke to a lot of hungarians hard hit by the financial crisis and they're very eager to hand back their keys and walk away debt free. here, the americans might be
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interested. about 30 centimeters, it is basically a village where people can go and pay fom naturanominad try to clear the balance sheet. >> this is the government's answer to the debt crisis. it can provide for up to 80 families, effectively bankrupt by mortgages taken out in the euros and yen. they had cheaper interest rates. the repayment soared when the -- tumbled. >> translator: i had a home in the north of hungary. i couldn't pay the mortgage, so we had to leave. we were amongst the first 20 families here. >> one in five households defaulted. >> this is quite cheap. it costs roughly 80 euro a month. critics say this is little more than the ghetto for the indebted. some of these homes remain empty. >> i think the aim is to keep heating costs low.
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that's why there is no gas. we chop wood and the stove is very good. >> the government has put a moratorium on evictions and established an agency to buy homes of struggling borrowers. and they're pressuring lenders to resolve bad loans to close the door on another legacy of the financial crisis. the compelling foreign banks to take the biggest hit could accelerate the construction in lending just as hungary needs credit. karen tso reporting for cnbc. if i can pick up on one of those elements in the story, this is about the government's push to try and accelerate the pace of clearing some of those bad loans. hungary is the second worst in the npo. foreign base have been charged to take a large hit. this may accelerate the issues. i remember picking up on this point, whether it's the central bank governor. we'll be speaking to him exclusively this afternoon. we'll be talking about the base rates and just who will benefit here on the ground in budapest
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and around the rest of hungary, ross. >> we look forward to that, karen. that's the danube behind you, as well sfp. >> it is the danube. >> is your traveling done after today? you're not doing the next stage? >> no, i'm handing the baton over to geoff cutmore who is on the ground in warsaw as this has been one of those easier assignments, ross. the gran did deur, the building it's beautiful. >> as karen has said, they are traveling in eastern europe. which is the best investment opportunity? hungary, romania or poland where geoff is going? let us know your thoughts. geoff is taking over and will be in warsaw talking about the
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investment opportunities and outlook for the region's biggest economy. and here on "worldwide exchange" as a result we'll have an interview with the country's former prime minister. that is live at 10:23 or 24 a.m. eastern. meanwhile, if university just joined us, a recap of the headlines for as long as it takes. that's the word from ben bernanke who suggests the easy money could be here to stay. the pound is a little lower. and car shipments rev up japan's october ex sports posting the biggest gains in three years. [ male announcer ] this store knows how to handle a saturday crowd.
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in this place you call your neighborhood. small business saturday is november 30th. get out and shop small. japan car shipments rose 31% to boost october exports. an advisory panel is recommending an overhaul for the world's biggest retirement fund. the goal, to shift slightly out of passive government bonds and into high yielding products, such as equities. although they're recommending alternatives like
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infrastructure, private equity and reits. analysts suggest the stock markets down from the benefit of the reforms. so far, japanese equities have come up around 45% so far this year. are they still going to go higher? head to our website. we've got some forecasts from analysts. but the rally should continue throughout 2014. follow us on @cnbcworld. do you expect the equities to continue to rally next year? >> i do. there will be corrections coming and going, but i think they're nearing the phase in which it's ready for the next leg of japanese deliberation. i expect them to step out of
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quantitative easing. the belief that it's leading into escaped velocity for the economy. so there is desperation more than anything else. takahashi successfully -- the economy. and back then, the economy developed by 60%. to date, we only have 20%. so it's legitimate to expect more. and in the equity markets, there's not only easing, but now there's a new program for retail that is going to be allowed to spend 1 million yen into the stock market tax free, income tax free and capital gains tax free. that amounts to $700 billion.
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>> combine that with the pension fund, also shifting its stance slightly. >> effectively, yes. normally the japanese market should go up. you can capture it if you're -- and the inflation. >> francesco, stick around. more to come from you. also still to come, u.s. banks have outperformed their european peers by a wide margin for the year. find out more when we return. as we do so, futures right now indicating flat to -- well, flat open right now for u.s. stocks. we'll see you in a few moments.
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you're watching "worldwide exchange." the headlines today, fed chairman ben bernanke says the central bank is committed to its ultra easing monetary policy for as long as needed, even well after u.s. unemployment falls below the fed threshold. this as investors await now the latest fomc minutes. the pound dips after the bank of england releases its own minutes. rejecting inflation fears, says there's no rush to raise rates despite a continued drop in unemployment.
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japanese car shipments speed up in october on u.s. demand. that's helped overall exports roar ahead by 19%. their biggest gain in three years. and jcpenney is expected to more than double its third quarter loss. but analysts see signs of hope as the struggling retailer brings in the holiday season. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. after the falls yesterday, slim falls for u.s. equity markets. futures are suggesting a big move either way ahead of the u.s. open. the dow down nearly 9 points, the s&p down some 3 points right now. the s&p pretty much is on fair value. as is the nasdaq and the dow at the moment is just about 10 points above fair value. the ftse cnbc global 300, that is fairly flat. just around 4 points lower. the european equities, the ftse
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at the moment is down 16 points, up 25 points yesterday. minutes from the bank of england, reiterating the message we had from the quarterly inflation report. which is essentially even if the rate gets down from the 70% target, we could still see more action and monetary policy. no need to rush rates. it would depend on the environment at the time. they are nudging up their growth forecast slightly. xetra dax is flat. the cac 40 is just down 6 points and the ftse mib is down 0.3%. no a huge follow through from what the fed chairman ben bernanke had to say, which is basically that it's committed to its easing monetary policy for as long as necessary and that could mean holding rates near zero until well after the u.s. unemployment rate falls below the threshold of 6.5%. speak to the national economist cup, ben bernanke threw his support behind the successor. >> i agree with the sentiment expressed by my colleague, janet
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yellen, at her testimony last week that the surest path to a more normal approach to monetary policy is to do all we can today to promote a morrow bust recovery. the fomc remainses committed to maintain a highly accommodative policy for as long as needed. >> francesco, there's almost no volatility in that move. what is your sense of a market gap down? >> you know, the metrics that are available right now in terms of valuation, in terms of leverage which is in excess of 400 billion, when you correlate all of those with the market movements, you see the characteristics of the market in 2007, back in 2000, back in 1972, as well. so i mean, you see the possibility for a correction in the markets. the general perception of the
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market of the central bank is there to put the floor to currency valuation. we think that is flawed because the central bank will not be there when the market starts to correct and will not be able to impede 20% corrections within the next six months. and -- >> there's no -- will see the would its of your eyes of tapering? >> that is possible. tapering is the most likely. whether or not some of the large orders are going to take some profit. >> could the opposite happen? could there be people who have not been partaking in this rally actually think now we're under -- on our benchmarks? >> it can definitely happen. i'm not saying the market has reached its top. it could go to the 1900 or even the 2,000 level. but i think all the official advances vis-a-vis this level are going to be given back when the correction happens. i think it the correction will be 20%, 30% from current levels. more than that, i think the market goes even further. i don't think it is allowed to
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be long the equity markets in the u.s. right now, given the risk that it takes. if you really want to be long something, there are better things to be long. >> what about europe? >> europe is, for example -- >> a lot of u.s. institutions reduced in the u.s. and increase exposure to europe. >> yes. by now i thought it was going to be even bigger than it was. we are long the europe vis-a-vis the u.s. and then in japan, as well. so i think that europe as some catch up performance, obviously, you are playing against time. i believe that in europe, it is deteriorating, it is not improving. growth is shallow compared with the discounts embarking, even, for example, in the last two years, you went from 110 to 153% of gdp. so it's deterioratindeteriorati. but in the short-term, there needs to be a rally.
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>> it was said today, though options are still on the table, we have discussed the merits of whether there should be qe. do you think at some point the ecb will go to a full qe program? clearly what's happened is europe, as you've written about, aent debased their currency in the way that every other g-10 country has tried to do. and fundamentals are overvalued. >> the u.s. and is japanese yen, the british pound, even against the norway and against the swiss bank, which are clearly stronger economies. europe has clearly a problem because it has the same exchange rate is so different and the imbalances across countries, i argue that it's -- there is some talks about the fact that there
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is the alignment of competitiveness can move for europe. but i believe it's not the case. it's just cyclical. it depends on aggregate demand. so if you have less money, it doesn't mean that your situation is improving. the economy is being affected. he lost 10% of his gdp in five years. so that cannot call for any toxic element. and i think that whether they will do qe or not, i think they will, but it depends on germany and i don't think i'm discovering anything new here. but germany in the last year managed to get the best, the lowest amount of on money possible. just in july of last year saying it was standing behind the euro. so no money has been spent. there was a lot of talk saying that europe would stick together because of the political commitment. but actually in the last year, political commitment and the economic gains have coinsite
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sided for germany, for example. so it remains to be seen whether it's stronger than the economic he. >> we'll find out. here are some of the other stories we're following today. gather locke is plannin to step down as u.s. ambassador to china next year to join his family in seattle. the announcement toop tok many surprise. his family moved to beijing back in 2011 but returned to america months later so his eldest daughter could finish high school. yahoo!'s increasing its share buyback program by $5 billion and plans a $1 billion offering of convertible notes. the company has aggressively bought back stock in recent quarte quarters. through september, yahoo! spent around $3 billion in buybacks
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which helped boost its stock by 75% this year. yahoo! stock up, 3%. and rupert and wendy murdoch are reportedly close to finalizing their divorce. rupert filed for divorce in june saying their relationship are broken down irretrievably. they have a prenuptial and two postnuptials in place. so the main issues are custody of their children and residency. wendy is reportedly expected to receive the couple's fifth avenue apartment which they bought for $44 million. still to come, jpmorgan closes one chapter in its lengthy book of legal troubles. but the bank still faces plenty of obstacles. we will look at which banks may be next at the table. bny mellon combines investment management & investment servicing,
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from generation to generation because it offers a superior level of protection and because usaa's commitment to serve current and former military members and their families is without equal. begin your legacy. get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve. jefferson county will ask for approval of a bankruptcy exit plan today. if jefferson faulters at any point, the government has the
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ability to enforce an increase. at the time, the biggest municipal bankruptcy in u.s. history. and the johnson & johnson unit has agreed to pay $2.5 billion to settle thousands of lawsuits over its metal artificial hip implants. the company recalled its system in 2010 after data suggested it failed at a higher than expected rate. it will go towards compensating 8,000 patients who had surgery to replace their implants. j&j in frankfurt up marginally. and jpmorgan is taking its punishment. it's agreed to a landmark $13 billion settlement with the u.s. government over bad mortgages that it sold in the run up to the financial crisis. seema mody is with us with more on the story. can we finally put a line under
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this, seema? >> we might be able to, ross. jpmorgan is settling charges with u.s. and state authorities. it overstated the quality of mortgages it was selling to investors during that period. now, in its statement, the justice department says the bank acknowledged it regularly and knowingingly sold loans it shouldn't have. jpmorgan admits it told investments that mortgage security met certain standards. on a conference call after the settlement was announced, cfo marian lake says jpmorgan did not admit to violating any laws and what it did admit to doesn't leave it vulnerable in other litigation. it won't impact future earnings and much of it is tax deductible. checking jpmorgan shares in europe, we're flat on the day. and the bank isn't completely out of the woods.
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it faces at least nine other government probes into things such as accounting practices in china and whether it manipulated the libor benchmark interest rate. in an interview with nbc news, eric holder says the jpmorgan settlement is a big step towards holding banks accountable for their behavior before the financial crisis. listen in. >> simply something that jpmorgan simply signed a check and smilingly said this is a good deal for us. this inflicts pain on that institution. the way in which this case has been settled is a tempt late for what we can expect both in terms of getting maximum amounts of money .using that money so we get it to people who suffer the greatest amount. that is either investors or homeowners. >> now, new york attorney general eric snyderman says after jpmorgan, he's confident other banks will follow and expects them to come to the settlement table in the coming months. legal experts say the next bank
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in line could be bank of america, which is also a big holder of mortgage loans thanks to its takeover of subprimer lender countrywide financial. they say goldman sachs, morgan stanley and possibly wells fargo will try to resolve the mortgage issue. so, ross, the story might not be over just yet. >> oh, dear. i wonder when it will be. now, seema, change of tone slightly. i don't know if you remember the film "it's a wonderful life." old film with jimmy stewart about george bailey -- >> i don't know if i was born yet. >> get this, right? they're going to make a sequel of this film, right? >> get out of here. really? >> yeah. you see, i don't think that's -- i think it's a perfect film. i don't think you need a sequel to that. do you? >> i wish i had seen the movie, but i think if there's a sequel, i will be more inclined to watch the first and second movie. i have to say, i'm looking forward to "catching fire" this
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friday, the hunger game series. i'm sure you're keeping up with that, as well. >> are there any sequels that shouldn't have been made? was rocky 59 a film too far? >> that is a good question. i think this was a good movie. there's always that risk of the sequel not living up to what the first movie -- the first movie potential, the first movie's success. we'll have to see if the wonderful life sequel lives up to your expectations. >> yeah. i'm worried. i am nervous about it. thanks for that, seema. john brenner tweeted in to say alien versus predator requiem was horrible on so many levels. so let us know what you think. join the conversation here on "worldwide exchange." get in touch with us, worldwide@cnbc.com, tweet @cnbcwex or direct to me
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@rosswestgate. what's the worst sequel that you ever saw that should never have been made? there's quite a few on of them. police academy 98, was that too much? keep your votes coming in on that. now, the foundation that holds a controlling interest in monte paschi says carrying out a plan in january would not be a welcomed move. the group says it needed more time. monte depasche's cfo said it could take place next year or at the end of 2014. the move is part of conditions requested in order to approve a state bailout. shares down 0.35%. european banks are reportedly in favor in the u.s. again. blackrock and t. rowe price significantly increased investment necessary some of the eurozone's biggest lenders in the second quarter. funds increased their holdings by 10% with a total ownership of
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shares rising to 33 billion euros. the move comes off the back of slight economic growth in the euro region. the question here is either they're too early because of the economics or you could argue, actually, they're way too low and we should have bought european banks and draghi game up short last year. >> yes, maybe. i think that it is not a bad trade, actually. i think there is some up side for european banks, especially for some of the bummed out ones. we oushz are looking at the one necessary greece, which are at historic lows, still, and have not been catching up significantly. so i think there is some -- to the trade. as i said, my bullish view about europe a few years from now, that is not allow us to look at anything but a practical trade. >> fair enough. right. still to come, it's been a tough year and a half for jcpenn
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jcpenney. but is the struggling department store chain finally set for a com rebound? we've got a preview. just by talking to a helmet. it grabbed the patient's record before we even picked him up. it found out the doctor we needed was at st. anne's. wiggle your toes. [ driver ] and it got his okay on treatment from miles away. it even pulled strings with the stoplights. my ambulance talks with smoke alarms and pilots and stadiums. but, of course, it's a good listener too. [ female announcer ] today cisco is connecting the internet of everything. so everything works like never before.
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new from philips sonicare. european equities, let flat today. the xetra dax do you know 0.25%. we have just dipped lower in the last ten minutes or so. let's see where the u.s. futures as a result have moved lower. indeed, they have. the dow is currently 12 points below fair value and the s&p at the moment is about 2.5 points below fair value. jcpenney reports third quarter results at 7:30 eastern. the department store is forecast to post a loss of $1.70 a share. that's on revenue of around $2.8
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billion. a decline of more than 3% in same-store sales. but trends might have been improving recently. jcpenney said october same-store sales are up 0.9%. the strongest monthly gain since december 2011. dana telsey, ceo and chief research officer joining me from new york. dana, are things getting better? and if so, by how much? >> i think they are getting better. the fact that you're getting to positive comps like you just mentioned with 0.9% in the month of october, it's certainly better than the deep negatives that they had. we're going to go into a highly promotional holiday season here in the united states. and what they earned in margin is a question mark. but they're going to want to get traffic and market share this holiday season. >> yeah. how big of a change have we got in promotional strategy? and what is happening with the private banks that, you know, jcp sort of promotes?
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>> i think with the promotional strategy, they're going back to promoting all day every day. and whether it's take an additional 25% off with already marked down by 40% off, that's exactly what you're going to see. the return to private banks is key, given that they're brands of people who are familiar with who are their shoppers, whether it's worthington, st. johns's bay, this familiarity we think is helping drive the positive compare in the month of october. >> if they can take market share and increase sales, but it comes at the expense of margin, is that in itself going to be enough to move the stock? >> i think you'll need a little bit of bulk because the margin is going to continue to be under pressure. we think it remains below 30%. i think getting through this holiday season with cleaner inventory levels, showing that going up against a negative
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31.7% comp in the fourth quarter, to move the stock, a little bit of improving comps with margins a little bit better will make investors feel you're moving in the right direction. >> yeah. what about their liquidity position? is that going to come under focus in the q&a with analysts? >> it will. they've already said that they expect by the end of the year for the liquidity position to be in excess of $2 billion, reiterating that statement is certainly important. >> all right. just give us your view. who is going to win this holiday season, dana? >> i think the winners this holiday season will be the offprice retailers like tjx, like a burlington. i think you're going to see macy's in the department store area win. on the specialty store side, it's going to be a limited christmas with victoria's secret. then you'll see michael coors continue to be a winner for this
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holiday season, too. >> dana telsey, thank you so much. final thoughts from fren fr frances francesco. tactically, you stay with it? >> certainly. i think if you want to go there tactually longer, by the time you want to exit it, everybody else will want to exit it. what we do is we stay long tactically. and then we hedge to the side. >> francesco, thanks for joining us today. ceo and chief investment officer. and that's just about it for today's edition of "worldwide exchange." keep thinking about the sequel you wish they had never made. otherwise, coming up, the
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countdown of today's markets stateside, "squawk box" picks up the reigns on cnbc. have a profitable day. good-bye for now. you get your hair cut here. you find that certain thing you were looking for here, but actually you get so much more. when you shop at these small local businesses, you support all the things that make your community great. the money you spend here, stays here. in this place you call your neighborhood. small business saturday is november 30th. get out and small.
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goodmorning. it is a busy day. we'll get key reads on inflation. consumer business inventories as well as housing. plus minutes from the last fed meeting. and if this really is all about the fed, the market i'm talking about, really doesn't matter what these people are saying and thinking. and retailers front and center. quarterly results due from jcpenney and lowes. it's wednesday, november 20th, 2013. "squawk box" begins right now.
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>> good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. and as joe mentioned, the economic agenda is packed today. we have a lot of things that are going on. so let's start with the markets. the s&p is coming off of its first back to back losses of the month. the futures this morning indicated down by just by a little bit. dow futures town by 12 points. nasdaq is down by just about 4.5. on our calendar today at 8:30 eastern time, we get october's consumer price index and the retail sales number pes.both the headline numbers are seen unchanged. coming up at 10:00, we have business inventory and existing home sales. sales are forecast to decline by a little more than 2%. this is important because obviously the fed is watching every number that comes out right now. fast forward to this afternoon and the fed will be in focus. to get the minutes from last month's fomc meeting, they are set to be released at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. speaking in washington, ben bern

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